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Thread: The internet will die in 2012

  1. #11
    I don't think the worst-case scenario, as described in the video and article, will happen.

    The only way it could work would be if ALL internet companies agreed to create this 'brave new world' - and there are at least two problems with that.

    1) Current US anti-trust laws already outlaw this kind of conspiracy. America isn't the whole world, but if companies can't do it here, it will severely limit their power to do it elsewhere.

    2) There's a big financial reward for internet companies that don't agree to the new model - they will gain HUGE numbers of customers as users run away from the other companies.

    This is not to say that things won't get worse. Already, most major ISPs are using bandwidth restrictions to reduce traffic to high-volume sites like BitTorrent. That trend is likely to continue and expand.

    Also, I just read yesterday that Comcast is testing a new pricing model with one price for monthly downloading - up to 40 gigabytes. Users who download more than that will be charged $1 per gigabyte. They're testing it in two small markets. I predict this model will be highly unpopular and that Comcast won't implement it nationally. If they do, users will run away in droves.

    If you think about it, the most common broadband model now uses a kind of across-the-board bandwidth throttle: the more you pay, the faster service you get. I don't think anyone thinks this is unfair. Why would it be unfair in future for an ISP to offer super-fast downloads from a partner or partners, say a movie downloading service like Netflix or music service like Napster? Maybe you could download from their partner sites at something like 10 Mbps and all other sites at 5 Mbps. As long as the company was upfront about it, and didn't otherwise discriminate against other traffic, I wouldn't have a problem with that kind of model. I might even choose an ISP that was partnered with a site I use a lot.

    In general, I'm in favor of Net Neutrality, but there can be problems. For example, what about spam and hacking? If companies are required by law to give all traffic exactly the same priority, how are they going to be able to restrict access to these types of abuses? Still, in general, net neutrality is the way to go. And a lot of powerful companies, including Google and Microsoft are lobbying hard to get net neutrality laws passed.

    I'm optimistic that things will be basically OK.

    If you're really concerned and want to do something about it, go to http://savetheinternet.com. You can read the latest, sign petitions and so forth.

  2. #12
    I thought the idea of no net nutrality was that sites themselves would have to pay for how fast they were over a cable companies tubes, and....thats it!

    It also would not be a monopoly as long as other companies were in on it. Even with a handfull, competician could drive innovation. Look at cell phone companies for example. Of course, the free market we have now would be MUCH better and is worth defending.

  3. #13
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    all major isp companies are in on it.

    "There's a big financial reward for internet companies that don't agree to the new model - they will gain HUGE numbers of customers as users run away from the other companies."
    the problem is that the physical lines themselves are owned by the companies (city funded, corporate owned). that is why a newcomer can't take the business, it would cost too much unless somebody started launching satellites now and set it up wireless. as for monopolies, look at cartels and "partnerships" (couldn't think of the right term, but that seems right enough) like opec. even though they are individual companies/countries, if opec decided to shut off oil to the americas we'd be screwed (unless we dipped into our reserves). the same will happen with the internet companies.

    "Internet providers have realized that the only way to not lose massive amounts of customers over this is to make sure there are no alternatives, that's why all major Internet providers are currently making agreements and planning to switch simultaneously somewhere in the year 2012."
    all of them are planning on switching, ALL of them. i'm pretty sure that would be collusion (god damn it, i can't think of these words today). either way, if this happens and people don't speak out about it (thanks for the link by the way, gasskisser) we'll be screwed.

    "Current US anti-trust laws already outlaw this kind of conspiracy. America isn't the whole world, but if companies can't do it here, it will severely limit their power to do it elsewhere."
    technically, it can be argued that there is no conspiracy and they are just checking out a new format. also, if they call it a "test run" or something like that and don't set a final date, the law will rule in their favor. on top of that, the odds are that they will find a loophole and if they don't they can just buy one. worst case scenario, we don't give them a loophole and they simply close down (suspend all services) and the internet would literally die.

    -edit: besides, if we do everything we can to prevent this from happening assuming the worst case scenario, the odds of the worst case scenario happening drop very fast.

  4. #14
    I don't know, this seems like sort of hoax, but then again I'm usually skeptic. The problem with this is that there's more to the internet than web browsing. Unless the ISPs block all the ports besides 80 someone could easily create sites on another TCP port. I highly doubt the ISPs would restrict access to only port 80 because so much goes on besides web browsing.

  5. #15
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    um... nobody will be able to access any "ports" (i'm assuming you aren't referring to... never mind) because the line itself will be monitored. because you are using their property, this is legal. just like if you are using my ball (football or whatever) i could know how you use it. i could also tell you not to do certain things with it (like start fires or kill people) and if you do those things i can just take my ball back. this is the EXACT (more or less) thing that will be happening. or we could put it this way. it doesn't matter what ports are and aren't blocked if your computer isn't even connected.

  6. #16
    Cable is not the only way to get the internet and never will be. So if cable companies do this, and make it suck, there are always alternatives.

    Look at the internet in the late 80s/early 90's, most folks only had a few ISPs to sign up with, they all sucked and charged by the hr, but things always got better because of competition.

    Paying $50 a month to get no more/no less than 200 sites will never ever happen. That isnt even what net neutrality is. IF something like that did happen, then people would be beating down the doors to get an ISP that uses satalight, which could come from any country. It might not be cheap now, but if there is demand for it, prices will go down, just like cable internet did when it was new.

    Simply put, the internet is too big, and can be accessed in too many different ways to be controlled by any one industry.

    I'll say again, I want net neutrality to stay. If my state wasn't already on the side of net neutrality I would write some letters and vote based on this(I try to stay active in state politics), but if there is every a tiered system, it will suck for 2-3 years max before consumers get the kind of internet they want, be it cable or no cable.

  7. #17
    This also reminds me, I forgot what it was called, but there was some service I used back in high school to get into sites they blocked at school. You went to a site, that would load another site through theirs, so the URL you were seeing never showed up in the web logs or got blocked out. I used it to read the penny arcade forums and look at porn with a few friends. Not fetish stuff of course, mostly celeb nudes, stuff like that :P

    Come to think of it, take a look at China. They have their massive government trying to control the internet, much as you say these cable companies will, and people can still easily get around it with ways listed above. China is a perfect example of how difficult(impossible) it is to control the internet.

  8. #18
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    i would completely agree with you if it was just the cable companies, but it is the cable companies, phone companies, and the current satellite companies. the reason that china can't control the internet from china is because the internet is out there and all that china can try to do (afghanistan too as well as many countries including [to a lesser extent] the united states) is block certain sites from entering their land, so to speak. that will fail because the internet is there and accessible, but what if the sites themselves were unaccessible because they weren't around anymore. websense (sp?) got their money from the schools to keep out porn or whatever, but they did a half assed job of it and kept the rest of the money. you could literally access porn from highschools using google search and as long as the Google box was up there you could look at all the porn you want. the cable companies, phone companies, and current satellite companies are the people getting into this whole profit based screwing. the only alternatives are the ones that aren't out yet who will be when this starts getting more public.

  9. #19
    No cable that can get you online enters china without going through the government filter, and people have been getting around it since day 1. I think it's safe to say that the Chinese government is more efficient and smart than our American cable companies. With that in mind, Im not going to be afraid that I wont be able to access anything I want some way or another to get around a tiered cable internet ISP.

    The same thing is currently happening in United Arab Emirates countries like Dubai. The government already regulates the domestic cable, so people just get their service form another country. If a government cant control the internet, then private owners in a free market with no regulation such as America dont even stand a chance.

    I doubt all ISPs(phone, cable, sat) are behind this, but even if they are, and it goes through and pisses people off, someone is going to see a market for unregulated internet where people are willing to pay, or even get it for free. Take a look at this:
    http://www.beussery.com/blog/index.p...-wifi-matters/

    This is no small company. Google has the resources to make this happen if there is ever a need. Pretty much any web company HATES the idea of not having net nutrality like we do now, and they will fight for a free system because it's good for their business. There is plenty of money out there to fill the gap. If net neutrality is struck down, the cable companies will be killing themselves just like the music companies are right now. People, especially American consumers, really really hate restrictions.

    I can give you any number of examples for what happens when companies piss off the people who pay them:

    -DRM music ----->Napster, Kazaa, Torrents

    -TV ads-------->TiVo fast fowarding, torrents

    -Print media----->Blogs

    -Shitty American made cars-------------->Imports

    -expensive land line phone survice with cold calls-------> cell phones

    -Paying 10c to send an email-------->Free hotmail

    -Playing commercials before shitty hollywood movies------>wait for DVD

    -Beta MAXs regulation of what can be sold on their tapes------------>unregulated VHS format

    -Internet Explorer--------->Firefox

    -Norton Anti-virus------------>FREE AVG

    People AlWAYS want to pay for something better, and there are always business competing for their money. Name me one technology related service that you have to pay more now, for less than you were getting 10, even 5 years ago. It just doesn't exist.

  10. #20
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    and yet, it IS happening. there is no longer any question over whether or not they are going to do this, the only questions are how long after the set date will this take effect and how are we going to react then or before it happens.

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